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The positive economic developments as well as Fed officials’ forecasts for at least three rate cuts this year had investors eying a March pivot. Meanwhile, Barkin — who will also be voting on Fed policy decisions at meetings this year — isn’t ruling March out entirely. For Barkin, “the breadth of inflation settling” and “the consistency of inflation settling” matter in his evaluation of whether the inflation rate is approaching the Fed’s target. Unlike many Fed officials, Barkin does not have a PhD in economics but has an MBA and a law degree. Investors will be paying close attention to any hints of the timing of rate cuts in the central bank’s latest statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference.
Persons: Tom Barkin, Barkin, eying, Christopher Waller, , Loretta Mester, Barkin —, isn’t, ” Barkin, , ” ‘ There’s, John Williams, Jerome Powell, Williams, “ There’s, Jerome Powell’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Richmond Federal, CNN, Fed, Cleveland Fed, FactSet, Richmond Fed, McKinsey, ” New York Fed, Raleigh Chamber of Commerce, That’s Locations: New York
Duffie said more could be done, but added that the "official sector Treasury market datasets are far more comprehensive now than they were a few years ago." They would have much better estimates of the basis trade, for example, but they still wouldn't know exactly how big it is. The trade involves hedge funds exploiting the difference between a Treasury security and its derivative in the futures market. The CFTC data includes other trades that hedge funds enter into that involve shorting treasury futures, the two industry sources said. At a major Treasury market conference earlier this month, officials underscored the importance of good data.
Persons: Darrell Duffie, Duffie, John Williams, Sherlock Holmes, Paritosh Bansal, Anna Driver Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Financial Research, Stanford University, Treasury, Futures Trading Commission, Securities, Exchange Commission, Regulators, ” New York Fed, Thomson Locations:
Minneapolis CNN —Buy Now, Pay Later installment payment offerings appear to be disproportionately used by people facing financial difficulties, raising concerns about the potential for greater money trouble, according to research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released Tuesday. New York Fed researchers delved into recently collected consumer survey data to determine who is being offered BNPL options and who uses them. They drew on data collected as part of the June 2023 Survey of Consumer Expectations Credit Access Survey, which included a set of BNPL-specific questions. “The fact that a disproportionate share of BNPL users are already financially fragile raises questions about the resilience of BNPL lending and its performance following an adverse economic shock,” New York Fed researchers wrote. The New York Fed research substantiates previously raised concerns from critics that BNPL may attract — and could ultimately harm — financially fragile individuals.
Persons: Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York Fed, Consumer, Survey, ” New York Fed, Consumer Financial Protection Locations: Minneapolis
New York CNN —Most of the year, people visit Jackson Hole, Wyoming, to ski, fly fish or simply enjoy the region’s vast natural beauty. Setting the stage: the economic backdropInflation has slowed significantly since last year’s Jackson Hole conference, alongside glimmers of a cooling labor market. A look back at past Jackson Hole conferencesLast year’s Jackson Hole conference was notable not just because it was the first time in two years that economists gathered in person. Months after Bernanke’s Jackson Hole speech, he unveiled a whole new phase of bond-purchasing in what has now become known as QE2. A columnist for the Financial Times went so far as to say that Draghi “certainly stole the show this year [at Jackson Hole].”No matter what comes out of the conference this year, it’s clear that what happens in Jackson Hole doesn’t stay in Jackson Hole.
Persons: Jackson, Jerome Powell, He’ll, Michael Cahill, Goldman Sachs, Powell, , Ben Bernanke, , Cahill, , Bernanke’s Jackson, Bernanke, Janet Yellen, “ it’s, ” Cahill, Michael Woodford, John Williams, Williams, European Central Bank Mario Draghi Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, Kansas City Fed, Jackson, Fed, Traders, Goldman, CNN, Columbia University, ” New York Fed, San Francisco Fed, European Central Bank, ECB, Financial Times Locations: New York, , Wyoming, Woodstock, Jackson
A senior Federal Reserve official said the central bank will need to keep monetary policy sufficiently restrictive for ‘a few years’ to bring down inflation and realign supply and demand in the U.S. economy. “To me, the important thing is we need a sufficiently restrictive stance, we need to retain a sufficiently restrictive stance of policy, we’re going to need to maintain that for a few years to make sure we get inflation to 2%, then eventually we’ll get interest rates presumably back to more normal levels,” New York Fed President John Williams said at The Wall Street Journal’s CFO Network Summit in New York. Fed officials last week approved lifting the benchmark federal-funds rate by a quarter-percentage point to a range between 4.5% and 4.75%. That was a slower pace than at prior meetings, they raised it by a half point in December and 0.75 point in November.
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